Iran

Will they strike?

Iran is facing a strategic dilemma:

It set up a “circle of fire” around Israel made of The Houthis in Yemen, Shia groups in Iraq and Syria and, of course, Hezbollah, which is the Jewel in the crown.

Now, the Israelis are shredding Hezbollah, which is Iran’s main proxy, humiliating both Iran and Hezbollah. Iran is seen as a paper tiger and must decide how to proceed.

Iran could decide not to do anything, announce that they will respond “in due course”, and leave it for now. Another option for Iran could be to keep out but ask its proxies, The Houthis and others, to fire at Israel.

The more extreme option is for Iran to fire directly at Israel. If pushed to the corner, I would say that, of all the options, the latter is more likely, and if Iran does fire at Israel, we are at a regional war. I hope I’m wrong!

What could the Israeli response to an Iranian attack be?

They will probably hit back from the air, and what I see as Israel’s prime target is Iran’s oil refineries, which, if bombed, will be disastrous to the Iranian economy (and to us, too, as the price of oil will shoot up).

A more extreme Israeli response could be, taking advantage of the crisis, to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Anxious times. Not good. Watch this space.