Iran (again)

Israeli airplanes are still parked ... What's going on?

When I opened my eyes this morning, realising that Israeli aeroplanes which are due to bomb Iran are still parked, I was taken aback. I expected that they would be either on their way to Iran or back from there. It doesn’t mean that I’m a warmonger, far from it, but the Israelis almost always react promptly to attacks such as the one inflicted on them by Iran the other day, and the fact that they are taking their time is odd.

So what’s going on?

This might be a tactical Israeli decision - to wait a bit. Perhaps they are waiting for intelligence to enable them to do this or that. Or, maybe they hesitate. Yes, maybe they buckle under international pressure not to overdo it in Iran. Also, I’m pretty sure the Israelis keep asking themselves whether it is a good idea to open a new front with a formidable opponent like Iran at a time when Gaza is still an unfinished business, and they’ve just started in Lebanon.

Now, let me make it clear: the Israelis will react. They will attack Iran, and they will do so soon.

But will they be able to restrain themselves? The type of targets they choose to attack in Iran and their success in destroying them will dictate the Iranian reaction to the Israeli operation. What are the “tempting” targets for Israel?

An obvious one is Iran’s nuclear facilities, which, if adequately destroyed, will mean that a strategic threat to Israel’s existence is out of the way. But then the Israelis must ask themselves: 1. Can we do it on our own? and 2. What will the reaction of the West be?

I think the answer to the first question is No; while Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, thus delaying production there, it can not properly destroy them without direct American intervention. The answer to the second question is that the West, particularly Uncle Joe, will be furious, as an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will be a serious escalation of the situation. It could potentially trigger a regional war, which is the last thing the Democrats need ahead of the November elections.

Iran’s nuclear facilities

Another tempting target for Israel could be Iran’s oil facilities. Striking there will be very visible - expect a big bonfire - and thus - psychologically - could help restore Israel’s deterrence in the Middle East. However, such an attack will have an impact not only on Iran’s economy but also on you and me as we will have to pay more at the petrol station.

Iran’s oil facilities

There are many other targets Israel could choose from: it could, for instance, bomb the air defence around Iran’s nuclear facilities, thus sending a message to Iran that next time, Israel could attack the facilities themselves. Or, Israel could choose to bomb assets linked to the regime, thus potentially bolstering Iranian opposition to it. Or, it could execute a Cyber attack and assassinate Iranian leaders … Well, the list goes on and on.

The Middle East, indeed the world, is facing a dangerous moment, and progress seems to be in one direction—escalation. We are all inching closer to the brink, and it is going to be harder and harder to step back from it.