NETANYAHU'S FOREVER WAR

Israel’s war in Gaza is the longest in its history; at the time of writing, it is over nine months and still going. That’s unusual. Traditionally, Israel’s wars are short. Take, for instance, the June 1967 War in which Israel defeated the combined armies of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, seizing vast lands: it lasted just under six days.

In 1967, in just under six days, Israel occupied the Sinai, Gaza Strip, West Bank, and the Golan Heights (areas in green)

One of the reasons why Israel tries to keep its wars short is the state of the economy. The IDF (Israel Defence Force) is a people’s army, and Israel is what we would call a “Nation-in-Arms”. It means that the bulk of the IDF is made up of the reserves – Israel’s citizens who, in times of war, put on uniforms and rush to the front. When, however, the IDF is fully mobilized, Israel’s economy suffers as those who run the economy turn into temporary soldiers. In the current Gaza War, more than 300,000 citizens were initially called up to fight Hamas and deploy on other fronts. Although, by now, the number of reserves serving in Gaza is relatively small, the impact on the economy is enormous.

So why has the Gaza War gone on so long? There are military and non-military reasons for that. 

Unlike in 1967, when Israel fought in relatively empty territories, in the current war, the IDF operates in the densely populated Gaza Strip, where more than 2 million Palestinians live in around 141 square miles. This requires relocation of the population from areas where fighting is going on lest it all turns too bloody. Relocating populations is time-consuming.

Relocating the Gaza population takes time and prolongs the war.

Another reason why the Gaza War drags on is because of concerns about Israeli casualties. To protect its troops, the IDF, at least at the beginning of the war, moved like a herd of elephants: slowly and forcefully, only advancing deeper into the Strip after massive air and artillery bombardments and bulldozers clearing everything on the path of the advancing troops. Such a way of fighting takes time.

“Teddy Bears” are used to clear everything on the path of advancing troops - it slows down the advance and prolongs the war.

Finally, believing that big wars were the preserve of history, the Israelis cut, in recent years, more than six divisions, which led to a severe lack of manpower. As a result, rather than attacking all of Gaza simultaneously, Israeli troops moved in phases from north to south.  

The IDF moved north to south in phases, which prolonged the war. They did not have enough troops to attack Gaza simultaneously in the north, centre, and south (Rafah).

However, war is not only about military strategy. The psychology of leaders is also a deciding factor, and this is true of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. As time goes on, a prolonged war looks like his only means of political survival.

Netanyahu presided over the biggest disaster in Israel’s history on 7 October 2023. For the first time in the country’s history, villages were occupied by the enemy – not even by regular Arab armies, but by a paramilitary terrorist organisation that managed to stay for hours inside the villages, kill over 1,000 people and return to the Gaza Strip with more than 200 hostages and bodies. Any investigation of this disaster, the evidence from which is still being combed over and likely will be for years to come, will, at least in part, point the finger at Netanyahu. An ongoing war delays the full investigation.

Perhaps more importantly, Netanyahu’s coalition depends on the support of small, far-Right parties led by settlers, notably Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want the war to continue for two main reasons. First, they hope that a continuous war in Gaza will not only eradicate Hamas but might also result in Israel’s running the place, allowing the re-settling of the Gaza Strip. We must recall that, despite strong opposition from settling groups, Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005, evacuating settlements and 7,500 settlers. 

Israeli settlements in Gaza before the 2005 evacuation. The settlers want to reestablish the settlements.

Second, the war in Gaza distracts world attention from the West Bank, where settlers take advantage of the war to confiscate Palestinian land to build new settlements. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir clarified that they would quit and bring down the coalition if Netanyahu stopped the war. The opposition leader, centrist Yair Lepid, said he would grant Netanyahu a political lifeline if the Prime Minister overruled his far-Right coalition members to sign a ceasefire deal. Netanyahu still refuses; he won’t trust Lapid. 

Finally, Netanyahu faces a corruption trial in which, if found guilty, he might end up in prison. In December, Netanyahu is expected to start giving evidence. He prefers to appear in court as a prime minister rather than an ordinary citizen, but he needs his coalition partners to stick with him. The price he is willing to pay for that is a prolonged war.

Netanyahu and his lawyers: he prefers to appear in court as Prime Minister rather than as an ordinary citizen

All of this explains why, whenever there is some progress in negotiations to release the 120 Israeli hostages still in Gaza, Netanyahu releases statements that hinder progress as a deal will require ending the war or at least accepting a long truce.

For Netanyahu, the war can never end.

Demonstrations in Israel to return the 120 hostages home from Gaza.