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The First Iran-Israel War?
All eyes are on Israel!
The way things might develop in the Middle East in the coming weeks and months is dependent on the forthcoming Israeli strike on Iran and the type of targets it chooses to attack. There is no question that Israel will hit back in response to the latest Iranian ballistic missile barrage on it, but how? And will it lead to further escalation and perhaps even a regional war?
Israel can choose from a long list of potential targets. There’s a lot of talk at the moment about a possible Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. I believe the probability that Israel will attack these facilities is low, though I could be wrong about it. The Israelis do not have the necessary ammunition to eradicate it, and just damaging the facilities is not good enough as it would just delay production there, not stop it. There are other tactical considerations which, I believe, make this option unlikely, such as the need to stay for quite a long time over the target.
Then, Israel could decide to attack oil facilities in Iran. This could have a strong psychological impact, as there will be a massive bonfire. I am pretty sure Western nations, notably the US (we must not forget the November elections), put enormous pressure on Israel not to attack the Iranian oil facilities as it will lead to a spike in the oil price and impact the world economy.
Israel can’t ignore Western pleas altogether as the scenarios mentioned above - striking at nuclear facilities and, or at oil refineries - will lead, for sure, to a massive Iranian response. Israel will also need Western help to foil an incoming Iranian retaliation.
What else can Israel do? It could attack military targets: The Iranian Naval force, depots where Iran keeps its missiles, the Iranian air defence system, and so on.
It could also attack assets belonging to the regime: offices and symbols of power. It could even try to assassinate leading Iranian officials. If I were the Iranian in charge of ballistic missiles, I would have taken shelter; for sure, I’d not use my Pager.
Cyber attacks could be another option, or the latter combined with some of the above options.
Iran’s reaction to the forthcoming Israeli attack will depend on the type of targets Israel chooses to strike.
It is clear that progress, at least as far as Israel and Iran are concerned, is in one direction- Escalation. We are inching to the brink, and soon, it might be too difficult to step back from it, particularly if I’m wrong in my prediction that Israel will not go for the Iranian nuclear facilities.
Are we on the brink of the first Iran-Israel War? We will have to wait and see.
Hello Chris:
Thanks for this. Interesting points. Here are a few points of my own:
1. Israel needs the US especially for defence against the Iranian retaliation. Obviously, it needs, and receive, the bombs and all what's needed for an attack on Iran.
2. Israel asked for a direct American participation in the forthcoming attack on Iran; but Biden refused.
3. Israel can deal with most targets in Iran, but, in my opinion, it can't destroy nuclear facilities there. It can cause damage, but not destroy it.
4. This could all, I would say, develop into the first Israel-Iran War.
5. As for Russia: I think that it is more likely (than nuclear support) that it will strengthen Iranian air defences.
6. Turkey and Egypt are furious with Israel (and the US).
7. Biden tries to limit the Israeli attack on Iran by imposing more sanctions on Iran. The fear is that an Israeli attack on oil facilities in Iran might lead to an Iranian attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Last time they did it, it halved Saudi oil production.
We are getting very close to the brink. It is a dangerous moment.
One would hope not because one of the longest wars in recent history, involving Iran and another country showed us that they have a lot of resolve and resilience. Israel must be safe and secure, so a long drawn out, war of attrition would not be in their interest. There has to be a political solution to avoid that eventuality. Could a different Arab state in the region restore balance?