Thanks for this. Interesting points. Here are a few points of my own:
1. Israel needs the US especially for defence against the Iranian retaliation. Obviously, it needs, and receive, the bombs and all what's needed for an attack on Iran.
2. Israel asked for a direct American participation in the forthcoming attack on Iran; but Biden refused.
3. Israel can deal with most targets in Iran, but, in my opinion, it can't destroy nuclear facilities there. It can cause damage, but not destroy it.
4. This could all, I would say, develop into the first Israel-Iran War.
5. As for Russia: I think that it is more likely (than nuclear support) that it will strengthen Iranian air defences.
6. Turkey and Egypt are furious with Israel (and the US).
7. Biden tries to limit the Israeli attack on Iran by imposing more sanctions on Iran. The fear is that an Israeli attack on oil facilities in Iran might lead to an Iranian attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Last time they did it, it halved Saudi oil production.
We are getting very close to the brink. It is a dangerous moment.
One would hope not because one of the longest wars in recent history, involving Iran and another country showed us that they have a lot of resolve and resilience. Israel must be safe and secure, so a long drawn out, war of attrition would not be in their interest. There has to be a political solution to avoid that eventuality. Could a different Arab state in the region restore balance?
Isn't it the case that Israel cannot attack Iran without US intelligence, logistical and military support? Therefore, any attack on Iran has to receive active support from the US administration – whatever it says publicly. So maybe this could be called the first US-Iran war? (Although in 1953 the US and UK helped removed the democratically-elected Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mosaddegh in an army-led coup).
Given the fact that the US-Israel are joined at the hip re this expanding war, isn't it possible that Russia will come to Iran's aid in the event of a sustained attack from the US and Israel? I believe it has already supplied its S400 missile defence system to Iran. Were Russia to supply nuclear weapons to Iran, the latter would presumably be safe from attack.
What really surprises me is the willingness of Egypt and Turkey to sit on sidelines while the US and Israel attempt to redesign the map of the Middle East. Admittedly, El-Sisi has been bought but surely there must be elements of the military in Egypt that aren't happy with Israel's attempt to create a 'Greater Israel'. Turkey must also be fearful of how this expanding war will affect its backyard.
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Hello Chris:
Thanks for this. Interesting points. Here are a few points of my own:
1. Israel needs the US especially for defence against the Iranian retaliation. Obviously, it needs, and receive, the bombs and all what's needed for an attack on Iran.
2. Israel asked for a direct American participation in the forthcoming attack on Iran; but Biden refused.
3. Israel can deal with most targets in Iran, but, in my opinion, it can't destroy nuclear facilities there. It can cause damage, but not destroy it.
4. This could all, I would say, develop into the first Israel-Iran War.
5. As for Russia: I think that it is more likely (than nuclear support) that it will strengthen Iranian air defences.
6. Turkey and Egypt are furious with Israel (and the US).
7. Biden tries to limit the Israeli attack on Iran by imposing more sanctions on Iran. The fear is that an Israeli attack on oil facilities in Iran might lead to an Iranian attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Last time they did it, it halved Saudi oil production.
We are getting very close to the brink. It is a dangerous moment.
One would hope not because one of the longest wars in recent history, involving Iran and another country showed us that they have a lot of resolve and resilience. Israel must be safe and secure, so a long drawn out, war of attrition would not be in their interest. There has to be a political solution to avoid that eventuality. Could a different Arab state in the region restore balance?
Isn't it the case that Israel cannot attack Iran without US intelligence, logistical and military support? Therefore, any attack on Iran has to receive active support from the US administration – whatever it says publicly. So maybe this could be called the first US-Iran war? (Although in 1953 the US and UK helped removed the democratically-elected Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mosaddegh in an army-led coup).
Given the fact that the US-Israel are joined at the hip re this expanding war, isn't it possible that Russia will come to Iran's aid in the event of a sustained attack from the US and Israel? I believe it has already supplied its S400 missile defence system to Iran. Were Russia to supply nuclear weapons to Iran, the latter would presumably be safe from attack.
What really surprises me is the willingness of Egypt and Turkey to sit on sidelines while the US and Israel attempt to redesign the map of the Middle East. Admittedly, El-Sisi has been bought but surely there must be elements of the military in Egypt that aren't happy with Israel's attempt to create a 'Greater Israel'. Turkey must also be fearful of how this expanding war will affect its backyard.